DEEP ZERO · DEZECON SCIENCE

A Financially Sustainable Portugal

Simulating the country as one financial–ecological system — so every sustainability decision carries a euro value before a euro is spent.

Sustainability that pays. Proven in simulation first.

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The shift

From a cost line
to a return line.

Today

Sustainability as a cost

Environmental commitments compete with schools and hospitals for the same budget. Every green euro is politically expensive.

With Deep Zero

Sustainability as a return

Every action is priced. Prevention, efficiency, and restoration compete on ROI — and win.

Everything priced

Environmental outcomes expressed as revenue, savings, or avoided loss — per citizen, per municipality, per state.

Test before you spend

Policies and investments run in simulation first. Only the winners reach the budget line.

Shared by design

Citizens, municipalities, and government act on the same scenarios — one truth, three views.

Why Portugal, why now

A funding window meets a climate front line.

€0bn+

EU recovery & resilience funds flowing through 2026.

0 ha

Burned in the 2017 fire season alone.

Of the world's cork originates from Portuguese montado.

"Portugal sits on Europe's climate front line while holding exceptional assets — and an EU funding window that rewards exactly the evidence a simulation platform produces. The timing is the argument."

Illustrative figures from public sources.

Eight domains, one engine

Where the simulation meets the balance sheet.

Simulator

See a scenario. Move the levers.

Illustrative estimator. Not tax advice.

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Hectares of fuel cleared per year1,800 ha

Landowner participation rate55%

Annual prevention budget€750,000

Simulated avoided losses (10-yr)

€19,958,400

iHow this is calculated

Unit

Euros, cumulative over 10 years, undiscounted (nominal — no inflation or discount rate applied)

Formula

hectares × (participation ÷ 100) × €2,800/ha × 0.72 effectiveness × 10 years

Assumptions & where each term comes from

hectares: 1,800 ha/yr — User slider — annual area brought under integrated prevention.
participation: 55% — User slider — share of landowners on treated area enrolled in the programme.
€2,800/ha: €/ha·year — Demo constant — blended annualised damage, suppression and recovery cost per burned hectare, calibrated from published Portuguese interior-fire cost ranges.
0.72: dimensionless — Demo effectiveness constant — share of expected loss removed on treated land, from wildfire-treatment literature midpoints.
10 years: years — Fixed simulator horizon — matches the 10-year municipal planning cycle used elsewhere in the tool.

Interpretation & caveats

Undiscounted 10-year avoided-loss estimate on the treated fraction only; excludes co-benefits (air quality, biodiversity, tourism) and does not net out programme overheads.

Illustrative estimator; constants are calibrated demo values, not official statistics.

Municipal net position

€3,985,440

iHow this is calculated

Unit

Euros, cumulative over 10 years (positive = net gain to the municipality)

Formula

35% × avoided loss (10-yr) − 40% × annual budget × 10

Assumptions & where each term comes from

35%: share of avoided loss — Demo cost-attribution constant — municipal exposure (own assets, first response, recovery) inside total wildfire loss.
avoided loss (10-yr): €19,958,400 — Live output of the row above; propagates hectares / participation / €2,800/ha / 0.72.
40%: share of prevention budget — Demo co-funding split — municipal contribution; the remaining 60% is state + insurer co-funding.
annual budget: €750,000 — User slider — annual prevention programme spend.
10: years — Simulator horizon (same as avoided-loss window).

Interpretation & caveats

35% is the municipal share of avoided loss (own assets, response, recovery). 40% is the municipal share of the prevention budget; the remainder is co-funded by state and insurers.

Illustrative estimator; constants are calibrated demo values, not official statistics.

Insurer co-funding share

60%

iHow this is calculated

Unit

Percent of the annual prevention budget an insurer could rationally co-fund (0–60%)

Formula

min(60%, avoided loss (10-yr) ÷ (annual budget × 10))

Assumptions & where each term comes from

avoided loss (10-yr): €19,958,400 — Live output above; propagates hectares / participation / €2,800/ha / 0.72.
annual budget × 10: €7,500,000 — Slider (€750,000/yr) × 10-year simulator horizon.
60% cap: hard ceiling — Demo regulatory constant — reflects Solvency-II and portfolio-concentration limits on insurer participation in public-private prevention schemes.

Interpretation & caveats

Capped at 60% to reflect regulatory and portfolio-risk limits on insurer participation in public-private prevention schemes.

Illustrative estimator; constants are calibrated demo values, not official statistics.

Return per €1 of prevention

2.66×

iHow this is calculated

Unit

Dimensionless multiple — euros of avoided loss per euro of prevention spend

Formula

avoided loss (10-yr) ÷ (annual budget × 10)

Assumptions & where each term comes from

avoided loss (10-yr): €19,958,400 — Live output of the first tile above.
annual budget × 10: €7,500,000 — Slider (€750,000/yr) held flat over the 10-year horizon; no indexation.

Interpretation & caveats

Undiscounted 10-year ROI. Does not price co-benefits (biodiversity, air quality, tourism) and treats budget as flat nominal.

Illustrative estimator; constants are calibrated demo values, not official statistics.

Link will shareWildfire — Interior municipalitySimulated avoided losses (10-yr): €19,958,400Municipal net position: €3,985,440

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Prevention spend vs. simulated avoided loss — 10 years

Prevention spend vs. simulated avoided loss — 10 years — Annual prevention investment versus modelled avoided loss over a ten-year horizon, in euros.
year	Prevention (euros)	Avoided loss (euros)
Y1	€750,000	€1,995,840
Y2	€1,500,000	€3,991,680
Y3	€2,250,000	€5,987,520
Y4	€3,000,000	€7,983,360
Y5	€3,750,000	€9,979,200
Y6	€4,500,000	€11,975,040
Y7	€5,250,000	€13,970,880
Y8	€6,000,000	€15,966,720
Y9	€6,750,000	€17,962,560
Y10	€7,500,000	€19,958,400

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Methodology

Assumptions & methodology

▾

Illustrative model calibrated to publicly reported ranges for Interior wildfire loss and prevention economics. Values are indicative — not a forecast.

Assumptions

•Avoided loss per treated hectare: €2,800 / ha / yr (blended damage, suppression, and recovery cost)
•Prevention effectiveness factor: 0.72 (fraction of exposure removed on treated land)
•Municipal share of avoided loss: 35% (own assets, response, recovery)
•Municipal share of budget: 40% (remainder co-funded by state / insurers)
•Horizon: 10 years, undiscounted

What each output represents

•Simulated avoided losses (10-yr) — hectares × participation × €2,800 × 0.72 × 10
•Municipal net position — 35% of avoided loss − 40% of 10-yr budget
•Insurer co-funding share — min(60%, avoided loss ÷ 10-yr budget), capped
•Return per €1 of prevention — 10-yr avoided loss ÷ 10-yr budget

Compare scenarios

Wildfire prevention — A vs. B

Save at least two scenarios above to unlock side-by-side comparison.

Cross-type comparison

Wildfire vs. Energy — normalised economic frame

Save at least two scenarios (of any type) above to compare across models.

The incentive layer

New instruments, built on simulated returns.

Citizen sustainability credits

Verified behaviour — energy and water savings, fire-prevention participation — earns credits redeemable against municipal fees such as IMI or transport. The simulation proves each credit costs the town less than the damage it prevents.

Simulation-backed green bonds

Municipal bonds whose prospectus is a Deep Zero scenario with quantified, auditable returns — a genuinely new instrument for town-hall finance.

The national policy sandbox

Ministries test legislation in simulation before it reaches parliament — fiscal impact, behavioural response, and regional winners and losers attached to every draft.

PORSUS ↗The market layer

Credits and instruments become tradeable in a made market with a guaranteed floor.

Enter Porsus →

Tax benefits

The state already pays for this. Most people never collect.

Portugal's tax code contains a lattice of sustainability incentives. Deep Zero connects every simulated action to the benefit it unlocks — automatically.

Illustrative estimator. Not tax advice.

IMI reduction for energy-efficient buildings

Municipalities may cut municipal property tax for buildings with high energy performance certificates.